Tony Lepage - Home

Half-page NOW Magazine ad

2008-06-19T03:16:00Z

You can see some of my latest freelance work in tomorrow's issue of NOW Magazine. The ad was commissioned for Ontario Greenbelt to promote a partnership between Greenbelt and top restaurants throughout Toronto. The participating restaurants, which normally use locally grown foods, will further promote local foods by featuring strawberries grown in the greenbelt and area. The event, First Fruits of Spring: Strawberry Festival, takes place throughout June. You can find more information at Edible Toronto.

Remembering 1929

2008-02-28T03:10:00Z

UBS shareholders approved a $12 billion bailout from Singapore and the Middle East today. The bailout comes as UBS has stacked up over $13 billion in losses. The CEO, Marcel Ospel, described the current financial crisis as possibly the most difficult since the stock market crash of 1929.

It's becoming clearer to the public that we're entering a recession but I wonder how many will realize that a depression is likely on its way as well. It's time that preparations for a depression are made by us all.

Canada's finance minister, Jim Flaherty, might also see the writing on the wall. Canada is the only country in the G8 nations with a surplus and in 2007 we posted a trade surplus of over $11 billion. In October, Mr. Flaherty estimated that surplus would drop to $4.4 billion. The Harper government must see problems because this number was revised to $3 billion during the past week. Flaherty stated that we need to be careful to protect our surplus from turing into a deficit--the first time in a decade.

Our surplus isn't the only thing to start dropping either. The Canadian housing market is starting to slow and will likely mirror that of our southern neighbor. Prices have begun to decelerate in Calgary and I'm betting the over abundance of housing, as well as rising property taxes, will do the same to Toronto and other cities across the country. It's funny how experts are saying the housing market will cool, when there is a great chance we'll go the same way as the USA, England and other countries with a housing market crash of our own.

Inflation is quickly gaining speed. After years of Bush tax cuts and record breaking federal budgets, the excessive amounts of money around the globe are starting to come back into the US causing quick rising inflation. This inflation was hidden for the past years partly because of the outsourcing of cheap labour around the globe. On Tuesday, the government announced that the producer price index, or PPI, rose 1% and core inflation, as fudged as those numbers are was up 0.4%. Remember that the core inflation numbers do not include food or energy costs (both of which are rising much faster).

Gold has hit another all time high today of $967.70 per ounce. With inflation gaining speed we should see gold continue to rise more over the next couple years. In the short term, the IMF is planning to sell off some of its 3,000 tons of gold reserves. They have not set a date but it looks like they'll sell some 400 tons of gold onto the market. This should give an opportunity to buy some more gold at cheaper prices, but again, no date has been set and demand is obviously high.

It's best to avoid trying to time this gold bull market and just buy on dips. I know of many people who were waiting for gold to drop to lower prices only to see it continue to rise (now they wait for the price it was at).

The most important thing is to start preparing, stop spending and preserve any capital you have against the heavy inflation that could very well destroy your savings.

X-Files 2!!

2008-02-27T07:53:00Z

It's probably been official for a while, but XF2 is being made and will be released July 25th 2008!

David Duchovny, Gillian Anderson and Chris Carter humerously answer questions in this clip, but on the hosting website you can see the leaked trailer too. The plot is under wraps as well as most actors/actresses and characters. OooOoOOoooh the excitement!!!

There is not a tech bubble.

2008-02-26T04:20:00Z

How Markets Work

2008-01-29T15:31:00Z

A humerous explaination of the mortgage crisis.

Cynically fantastic!

Surprise!

2008-01-23T03:58:00Z

I would be lying if I said that the 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve didn’t catch me by surprise. It's quite obvious I was surprised because I was certain enough to call for a big drop in US stock markets yesterday (see previous post). I figured Q1 would be a negative quarter only to have the markets boosted by rate cuts. I didn’t expect the rate to be dropped to hard and so fast.

I happened to be walking through the PATH (Toronto's underground network of malls and walkways) and stumbled upon Scotia Bank's investment screens. There were people gathering around and the headline described the TSX tumbling 500 points in just 20 minutes into the day. Anyone who knows me can probably imagine how much adrenaline started to pump through me at this point. I figured this was the end game. If there was an olympic speed walking qualifier that day, I might have won.

I did not expect a cut today, a day when an official meeting did not take place. The last time they cut the rates between meetings was in 2001 to stave off the recession we should have had back then. The last time they cut interest rates by three-quarter percent was in August of 1982.

Of course, cutting the interest rate this drastically would have a positive effect on the stock market. But, the interesting thing is the market still closed down 1%.

What should be noted is that this rate cut completely highlights the gravity of the situation. Again, I underestimated how quick Bernanke would be to cut the rate. Although, this IS a man who wrote his thesis on the 1930s and concluded that quick, easy money would have solved the problem. He has since become known as Helicopter Ben because he mentioned printing money and dropping it out of helicopters would not be out of consideration if he needed to get money into consumer’s hands. I guess he'll get his chance to try his theories.

Now we see G. W. Bush offering immediate tax rebates of 700-1,600 USD to needing American citizens. All the related announcements last week weren’t enough for investors on Monday, and markets around the world started to tumble. Those announcements spooked much of the intelligent money.

A few of the economist I subscribe to were wondering if the fed would be able to print enough money to stave off a crisis. The issue is whether we see the endgame as a contraction of the money supply (loans being called in) or an expansion of the money supply (anything to stimulate the economy for one more year, month, day). I think they can rest assured that Mr. Ben Bernanke will try his very best to completely destroy the value of the USD. He'll be printing money as long as there are enough trees (or cotton).

With that in mind, be sure that Gold will easily double from here, and will likely trade over $1000 within 6 months.

Examining the value of the USD to gold we see an increasing pace.

1913 USD worth 1/20 of 1 ounce of gold (Federal Reserve Act)
1930 USD worth 1/32 of 1 ounce of gold (Breton Woods and confiscation of US citizens' gold)
1970 USD worth 1/65 of 1 ounce of gold (Abandonment of Bretton Woods)
2000 USD worth 1/375 of 1 ounce of gold
2008 USD worth 1/910 of 1 ounce of gold

Things are REALLY getting messy. I've picked up the pace on buying gold. I’ll be visiting Costco, and saving up for layoffs (2009).

Have a great day :)

Putting the Dow in Down

2008-01-22T06:09:00Z

I should take some time to briefly outline my investment ideas of 2008.

The year has obviously started out on the wrong foot. The TSX is down over 10% and the DOW is going down just as fast. For you skim readers, watch the Dow Jones tomorrow, it’s going to drop 6-10%. The Dow now sits at 12,099.30.

My bet: January 22, 2008 will end with the Dow (-6-10%) at 11,373 - 10,889.

Generally speaking, I expect Q1 of 2008 to be volatile, as it’s already proven to be. The lows reached in the coming weeks will be lower than we’ve seen in many years.

Don’t worry, Q2 and Q3 will see the kind of gains only possible if you have the ability to print massive amounts of money. And heck yes, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada have that magical ability. While the first bit of 2008 is going to be quite volatile and to the negative, the middle half will prove to be positive. If the Fed tries hard enough, it can inflate the economy and investment markets to new highs.

By the year 2010, we’ll be seeing an inflationary depression. The warning signs are here, and they probably won’t be noticed by many. I don’t use the word “depression” lightly. Think of what it would be like to live through a depression and ask yourself if you can even imagine it happening. I’m sure you are in disbelief, and this is part of why we repeat history over and over.

Luckily, we’re blessed with the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a man who studied the great depression and felt that it was caused by a lack of liquidity and that the Fed’s role should be to print as much money as possible to prevent a deflationary environment. The great thing is that Mr. Helicopter Ben will get to practice what he preaches and prove me wrong.

Before I start writing a series on how the Fed sucks and how to protect yourself from a depression, I’d like to leave you with a video from Ron Paul that proves we’re not the only ones who understand this financial system’s faults. If you’re lazy, you should at least watch 6:20 of this video:

Ron Paul at 6:20

I know we’re making progress when I realize how many people found us on the internet. The other thing that is tremendously exciting to me, you know when I talk about several policies; the number one policy is, of course, individual liberty and our constitution. I’ve always had a deep concern about honest money, the government is supposed to be there to protect honest money not destroy the money. I never thought I’d see the day when I got loud cheers on the University of Southern California and the University of Michigan when I start talking about getting rid of the Federal Reserve!

**Cheers**

End The Fed!

End The Fed!!

End The Fed!!!

I get chills when I hear so many people chanting "end the fed!" and it reminds me that i'm not the only one who understands the financial bombshells of our lives.

Dr. Paul continues and you should listen to what he days.

My Plastic Diet

2008-01-08T06:03:00Z

In an attempt to reduce my use of plastic, I have been looking for ways to eliminate it from daily food use. It's surprising how much plastic we use and shocking to find that it's realistically impossible to ban from one’s life completely...

The health implications of plastic and food aren't clear at all although it is safe to say they are underestimated by nearly everyone. What is clear to me is that tomato sauce and other foods stain most containers permanently and this leads me to believe there is a reaction taking place. The plastic containers are degrading.

The environmental impacts are definitely ignored. Even as corporations attempt to brand themselves as environmentally friendly we see them handing out "reusable" plastic bags. In this post, you can see just how much plastic we consumed.

Enter IKEA. It would be an understatement to say I was visibly thrilled when I stumbled upon glass and ceramic containers for storage and serving of food. It was a dilemma I was almost avoiding because I knew of no options for storing food in the freezer or fridge without thinking of those standard Ziploc containers or bags. Tempered glass that is dish washer, freezer and microwave safe is fine by me. The ceramic is also dish washer, freezer and microwave safe but is also oven safe.

The portability of the containers is limited when compared to the Ziploc containers I previously. When I used Ziploc, I used to toss the containers out if food went bad or they started visibly degrading. With these new containers, this simply won’t be the case. Waste not want not.

Patagonian Toothfish

2008-01-04T01:03:00Z

The Patagonian Toothfish is the perfect example of how consumers are ultimately responsible for the depletion of fish stocks regardless of their international recognition as threatened or endangered. Commonly sold in North America as the “Chilean Sea Bass,” the species is usually illegally harvested and its stocks are threatened. The fish matures at ten to twelve years of age and commercial fishing of the species started in the early 90s. Less than twenty years later and the fish are endangered. It’s estimated that it’ll be commercially extinct in less than three years.

Fishing of the toothfish actually threatens other endangered species as well. The fishing lines pull under petrels and albatrosses and the Elephant seal’s diet consists of 98% toothfish.

Although the Canadian government is refusing to recognize international agreements for conservation, it is ultimately up to the consumer to make smarter decisions. I was happy to see local retailers recognizing the need for conservation.

But my delight was snubbed as I walked 5 steps to the next retailer.

This does wonders in convincing me that consumers are not ignorant hos.

The Patagonian Toothfish goes under many names, including: Australian Sea Bass, Antarctic Sea Bass, Black hake, Chilean Sea Bass, Chilean grouper, Mero - in Japan - and Bacalao de profundidad or Merluza negra in Chile.

1 million bottles every 2.5 minutes

2007-12-30T04:53:00Z

How much do we really consume? Really big numbers are hard to picture. In the U.S.A. 2 million plastic bottles are consumed every five minutes. It's hard to picture how much that is. Chris Jordan has filled a niche in the art world by displaying consumption.

Take a look for yourself:

Nothing to worry about. Heck, what's the big fuss.

NAU: One Step at a Time

2007-12-18T04:29:00Z

Harper hopes he’ll be able to pass of small, vague bills, through parliament and we won’t notice their similarity with bills passed south of the border. This article announces some of the first steps Canada will take toward becoming part of the “North American Union.” In early November, George W. Bush introduced a proposal for legislation that’ll force recalls of products deemed unsafe by the FDA.

It might be too late for us already. It was painfully obvious that our leaders felt we should decrease the value of our dollar (even though the Canadian dollar should be higher than the U.S. dollar). We now have a dollar worth less than <strikethrough>toilet paper</strikethrough> the U.S. dollar.

Harper should think twice about manipulating our trade with China.

As an exporter, Canada has benefited directly and indirectly from China’s industrial revolution. Indirectly, China’s demand for all sorts of industrial raw materials, especially energy and metals, has pushed up world prices. As a major raw materials producer, Canadian companies have received these higher prices for their products, whether we sell those commodities to China or to another nation.

Exports from Canada to China are growing. Although we complain about the loss of manufacturing jobs, we really haven’t seen anything yet. If we dare to block imports from China, they might stop buying our products.

Of course, Harper might want that.

Ron Paul

2007-12-15T19:15:00Z

Ron Paul has truly started something big. No matter the outcome of this upcoming election, Ron Paul has let loose a beast. A beast of discontent. An intelligent beast. Once liberty takes root, it grows quickly.

It is very relieving to see so many people hearing a message. There is not point in being complacent about what is going on economically, environmentally, politically, militarily, etc. The effects are far reaching and touch every aspect of our lives.

Plus, Ron Paul likes gold :)

Remember this: Fascism doesn't stop at the US border.

New Server!

2007-12-08T07:26:00Z

Transfer now nearly complete, this is my first article! Your feedback welcome!

It’s not the first time

2007-09-12T17:24:00Z

I’ve heard about the use of provocateurs to dismantle and discredit protestors. Maude is also right in that the media played down the numbers but it’s too bad Harper seems to be one of the jerks spreading the propaganda. Perhaps Steve knows about the action of these mercenaries personally. If the SPP discussions were as public as they should be there wouldn’t be as many people spreading an aura of distrust.

While we’re in the Maude Barlow loving mood, how about some more information about SPP. Without further ado, here are Maude’s top 10 reasons to oppose SPP.

Stevie’s Right!

2007-08-21T17:22:00Z

The North American Summit is taking place in Quebec this week. George, Felipe and Stevie—also known as the three amigos, will be discussing matters of security, prosperity and partnership. It sounds pretty innocent; probably issues limited to national sovereignty. And since there won’t be anything that’s important enough to concern the rest of the country, why not invite some top business leaders who probably have nothing better to do than to discuss SPP.

Let’s make sure we give the public a few cages so that they can protest. We’ll set up a live camera feed so the cannon fodder feel like they’re being seen and heard. Please, don’t take Stevie the wrong way when he says “I’ve heard it’s nothing.” He really did see it for himself… honest.

Yes, Stevie-Steve, you’re right.

“A couple hundred? It’s Sad.”

Harper dismisses summit protestors as ’sad’