Tony Lepage

UBS shareholders approved a $12 billion bailout from Singapore and the Middle East today. The bailout comes as UBS has stacked up over $13 billion in losses. The CEO, Marcel Ospel, described the current financial crisis as possibly the most difficult since the stock market crash of 1929.

It's becoming clearer to the public that we're entering a recession but I wonder how many will realize that a depression is likely on its way as well. It's time that preparations for a depression are made by us all.

Canada's finance minister, Jim Flaherty, might also see the writing on the wall. Canada is the only country in the G8 nations with a surplus and in 2007 we posted a trade surplus of over $11 billion. In October, Mr. Flaherty estimated that surplus would drop to $4.4 billion. The Harper government must see problems because this number was revised to $3 billion during the past week. Flaherty stated that we need to be careful to protect our surplus from turing into a deficit--the first time in a decade.

Our surplus isn't the only thing to start dropping either. The Canadian housing market is starting to slow and will likely mirror that of our southern neighbor. Prices have begun to decelerate in Calgary and I'm betting the over abundance of housing, as well as rising property taxes, will do the same to Toronto and other cities across the country. It's funny how experts are saying the housing market will cool, when there is a great chance we'll go the same way as the USA, England and other countries with a housing market crash of our own.

Inflation is quickly gaining speed. After years of Bush tax cuts and record breaking federal budgets, the excessive amounts of money around the globe are starting to come back into the US causing quick rising inflation. This inflation was hidden for the past years partly because of the outsourcing of cheap labour around the globe. On Tuesday, the government announced that the producer price index, or PPI, rose 1% and core inflation, as fudged as those numbers are was up 0.4%. Remember that the core inflation numbers do not include food or energy costs (both of which are rising much faster).

Gold has hit another all time high today of $967.70 per ounce. With inflation gaining speed we should see gold continue to rise more over the next couple years. In the short term, the IMF is planning to sell off some of its 3,000 tons of gold reserves. They have not set a date but it looks like they'll sell some 400 tons of gold onto the market. This should give an opportunity to buy some more gold at cheaper prices, but again, no date has been set and demand is obviously high.

It's best to avoid trying to time this gold bull market and just buy on dips. I know of many people who were waiting for gold to drop to lower prices only to see it continue to rise (now they wait for the price it was at).

The most important thing is to start preparing, stop spending and preserve any capital you have against the heavy inflation that could very well destroy your savings.

It's probably been official for a while, but XF2 is being made and will be released July 25th 2008!

David Duchovny, Gillian Anderson and Chris Carter humerously answer questions in this clip, but on the hosting website you can see the leaked trailer too. The plot is under wraps as well as most actors/actresses and characters. OooOoOOoooh the excitement!!!

A humerous explaination of the mortgage crisis.

Cynically fantastic!

I would be lying if I said that the 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve didn’t catch me by surprise. It's quite obvious I was surprised because I was certain enough to call for a big drop in US stock markets yesterday (see previous post). I figured Q1 would be a negative quarter only to have the markets boosted by rate cuts. I didn’t expect the rate to be dropped to hard and so fast.

I happened to be walking through the PATH (Toronto's underground network of malls and walkways) and stumbled upon Scotia Bank's investment screens. There were people gathering around and the headline described the TSX tumbling 500 points in just 20 minutes into the day. Anyone who knows me can probably imagine how much adrenaline started to pump through me at this point. I figured this was the end game. If there was an olympic speed walking qualifier that day, I might have won.

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I should take some time to briefly outline my investment ideas of 2008.

The year has obviously started out on the wrong foot. The TSX is down over 10% and the DOW is going down just as fast. For you skim readers, watch the Dow Jones tomorrow, it’s going to drop 6-10%. The Dow now sits at 12,099.30.

My bet: January 22, 2008 will end with the Dow (-6-10%) at 11,373 - 10,889.

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In an attempt to reduce my use of plastic, I have been looking for ways to eliminate it from daily food use. It's surprising how much plastic we use and shocking to find that it's realistically impossible to ban from one’s life completely...

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The Patagonian Toothfish is the perfect example of how consumers are ultimately responsible for the depletion of fish stocks regardless of their international recognition as threatened or endangered. Commonly sold in North America as the “Chilean Sea Bass,” the species is usually illegally harvested and its stocks are threatened. The fish matures at ten to twelve years of age and commercial fishing of the species started in the early 90s. Less than twenty years later and the fish are endangered. It’s estimated that it’ll be commercially extinct in less than three years.

Fishing of the toothfish actually threatens other endangered species as well. The fishing lines pull under petrels and albatrosses and the Elephant seal’s diet consists of 98% toothfish.

Although the Canadian government is refusing to recognize international agreements for conservation, it is ultimately up to the consumer to make smarter decisions. I was happy to see local retailers recognizing the need for conservation.

But my delight was snubbed as I walked 5 steps to the next retailer.

This does wonders in convincing me that consumers are not ignorant hos.

The Patagonian Toothfish goes under many names, including: Australian Sea Bass, Antarctic Sea Bass, Black hake, Chilean Sea Bass, Chilean grouper, Mero - in Japan - and Bacalao de profundidad or Merluza negra in Chile.

Further Reading:

• WWF – Last Chance Saloon?
• Wikipedia: Patagonian toothfish
• Satellites Identify Albatross Danger Zones

How much do we really consume? Really big numbers are hard to picture. In the U.S.A. 2 million plastic bottles are consumed every five minutes. It's hard to picture how much that is. Chris Jordan has filled a niche in the art world by displaying consumption.

Take a look for yourself:


Nothing to worry about. Heck, what's the big fuss.

Harper hopes he’ll be able to pass of small, vague bills, through parliament and we won’t notice their similarity with bills passed south of the border. This article announces some of the first steps Canada will take toward becoming part of the “North American Union.” In early November, George W. Bush introduced a proposal for legislation that’ll force recalls of products deemed unsafe by the FDA.

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Ron Paul has truly started something big. No matter the outcome of this upcoming election, Ron Paul has let loose a beast. A beast of discontent. An intelligent beast. Once liberty takes root, it grows quickly.

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Transfer now nearly complete, this is my first article! Your feedback welcome!

I’ve heard about the use of provocateurs to dismantle and discredit protestors. Maude is also right in that the media played down the numbers but it’s too bad Harper seems to be one of the jerks spreading the propaganda. Perhaps Steve knows about the action of these mercenaries personally. If the SPP discussions were as public as they should be there wouldn’t be as many people spreading an aura of distrust.

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The North American Summit is taking place in Quebec this week. George, Felipe and Stevie—also known as the three amigos, will be discussing matters of security, prosperity and partnership. It sounds pretty innocent; probably issues limited to national sovereignty. And since there won’t be anything that’s important enough to concern the rest of the country, why not invite some top business leaders who probably have nothing better to do than to discuss SPP.

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I’m just livin’ out the American dream
And I just realized that nothin’ is what it seems

Shelved 2 months after Iraq was invaded, I managed to find this gem on youtube.

Madonna says this album is her favorite. It sold the most copies in countries opposed to the war (ie, France). If you give the album a spin you’ll find are some great lyrics, with real messages. And, not surprisingly, this album is her worst selling.

Is it any wonder why all the mainstream stuff is fluff? We wouldn’t have it any other way.